Collapse Day

I am about to enter very hazardous territory with this post.

Choosing a date or short time frame has tripped up many forecasters in the past.

Nevertheless, I will attempt to outline my time frame calculations using various interdisciplinary sources.

Note that I am not saying this will happen, just that this is one possible outcome.

Contributing factors:

1) Worldwide fiat currency regime - based on "faith and credit" in governments rather than hard assets and a sound monetary system.
"Gold is the money of kings;
silver is the money of gentlemen;
barter is the money of peasants;
but debt is the money of slaves."
Money and Wealth in the New Millennium, by Norm Franz, copyright © 2001, Whitestonepress, page 154.

2) Nietzschean philosophies predominate Western Democracies - there are no consequences to actions and a rejection of absolute values.
To quote Dick Cheney "deficits don't matter".
This is also the dominant philosophy of the elite that seek to manipulate the financial system and destroy the dollar. We examined this problem in a post here:and here:

3) As a corollary to #2, to make a gross generalization, the consuming public has also embraced the Nietzschean philosophy, and generally spends beyond their capacity to repay.

4) A desire to be "freed" from the restrictions of a gold standard, where there are physical limits of the metal that restricts the "creation" of money.  Instead of the true freedom (with responsibility) of gold, we have the license of fiat currency.
In the long run license fails.

5) Sovereign debt has reached unprecedented levels in developed countries as we demonstrated in an earlier post here. This will require unprecedented austerity, deleveraging, and default to resolve. More on sovereign debt here:

6) The United States, largest economy in the world, is soon to be forced into austerity as shown in an earlier post here.

7) Central Banking plays a key role in producing inflation through increases in the money supply as evidenced here.

8) The level of entitlements (pensions & medical) have reached extremes.  Entitlements in most western democracies are partially or mostly unfunded in their present forms.

9) The role of the State has grown like a cancer over the past 60 years and now behaves pathologically. (we examined this phenomenon here and here:)

10) Medjugorje Visionaries
I have studied these individuals for some time and have gone so far as to personally visit the site of the alleged visions. What seems remarkable is the lack of personal gain the visionaries derive from this fame. While my skepticism was extreme before my Bosnia-Herzegovinan visit, I found no evidence that these visionaries were anything but truthful. I have also witnessed physical evidence on several occasions that something is happening in Medjugorje that defies explanation by the scientific means.
Is it possible that these individuals have been chosen to deliver a message to us?
Do they know the unknowable?
If so, how does the message affect us?
Can we, by deduction, have some insight into the future events to which they refer?
More on the visionaries here:

One interesting observation made was the allusion by one visionary to a significant event on March 18th, (the year was not mentioned), and the possible large impact this could have for society in general. The individual that made this statement studied Economics in the 1980s after she received all the major visions.

11) A defeat of fiat currencies and institution of sound money could lead to an end of large-scale war as the pathological state would be unable to easily finance foreign incursions. Curiously this ties in with what some visionaries are saying that there will be no World War 3.

12) Astronomical phenomena
A conjunction between Mercury & Uranus is anticipated for March 9, 2011. In Greek mythology Uranus is the chief god of the underworld and in Roman mythology Mercury is the god of commerce.
Mercury - God of Trade, Profit, Merchants and Travellers. His main festival, the Mercuralia, was celebrated on May 15 and on this day the merchants sprinkled their heads and their merchandise with water from his well near the Porta Capena. The symbols of Mercury are the caduceus (a staff with two intertwined snakes) and a purse (a symbol of his connection with commerce).
Uranus - He was the personification of heaven and the sky. When Uranus was born with his other siblings, he decided to banish the Cyclopes and the Hecatoncheiris into the depths of Tartarus. In Greek mythology Tartarus is a deep, gloomy place, a pit, or an abyss used as a dungeon of torment and suffering that resides beneath the underworld.
While astrological interpretation is notorious in our society, it is not without precedent that signs in the sky announce coming events, if the star of Bethlehem is any indication. See more on this by watching video here.

13) Martin Armstrong's wave theory points to a major downturn in June 2011 which he writes as 2011.45.
See his site and a discussion on fractals here.

14) Fractal behavior of markets could lead to a Schrodinger scale wave collapse. (here)

15) Friday March 18, 2011 is Quadruple Witching Day. This day is a reckoning of accounts that seems likely, in my view, to touch off the beginning of the long Kondratieff Winter stock market collapse. I calculate the odds at least 10%.

Collapse evidence:
Baltic Dry Index drops off a cliff and shows no sign of recovery:

Gold vs currencies

Our target date for the beginning of the stock market collapse: March 18, 2011 with range of March 15 to April 2nd.


  1. So your target date is the year before? Very interesting. What have you been drinking or taking?

  2. My apologies for the poor editing.
    My Target date is March 18, 2011.

  3. Ok, I´m sorry, I thought it could only be a misprint.

    Just an innocent question: what the He** has the BDI to do with your dire predictions? It took a beating, indeed, but it recovered well over 100%.

    "Note that I am not saying this will happen, just that this is one possible outcome".

    Of course it´s only "one possible outcome", thanks God. Like yours, or mine, demise before that. Or anything else, that we can imagine, for that matter.

    But thanks, anyway. I´ll be on the outlook with some puts.

  4. The upper ratio is what I jokingly call the Holy Grail.

    It is one of my systems, it forces me into a short position.

    Now has anyone been paying attention to what this Holy Grail Is? Check it out, I wish I had 40 years of data on this, as 2 years of data can mislead, especially since this has been an very curious 2 years in the markets.

  5. Manuel, in my experience, the Baltic Dry Index is one of the best leading global indicators of economic health. If we view the 5 year picture, we find that it has not recovered very well at all. To add to the difficulties in shipping, the presently high crude prices are taking a toll on the bottom line as are the enormous numbers of idle ships. Further compounding problems are the large number of ships under construction that have yet to hit the market. I anticipate a significant number of shipping bankruptcies in the not too distant future.


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