Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Gold Starts To Shine Again

While the stock indexes move to record highs, beneath the facade of bullish market, cracks are appearing.

My proprietary trading system for gold miners just gave an preliminary buy signal today.  It has not yet been confirmed by another indicator.  We will keep a close eye on this system to see how it behaves over the next few days to the European Central Bank decision and the Federal Reserve meeting next week.

A second proprietary system based on the price of gold alone, has not yet given a signal.  While we see new highs made in the general market, we are also watching this system closely for its signal, which often coincides with a general market decline.

A further caution in a euphoric stock environment is the behavior of bonds.  Yields have been pulling back lately, causing us to wonder if the "Trump effect" on the market will soon wear off.


Wednesday, November 30, 2016

The Left Forgot What Was Real



My view:
 
Note comments between 10:30 and 11 minute mark in particular.

After working for over 25 years in finance, when you can't determine what is real, how can you make a good investment or lending decision?

Now interest rates are rising and it will be quite interesting to see their impact on the value of hard assets such as real estate.

Friday, November 25, 2016

Gold Reversal Begins Today

My proprietary mechanical system is showing the first signs today that the downtrend in gold and precious metal stocks may be reversing.

The stock market as a whole is very stretched after such a fast rally, while the bond market is extended the opposite direction as US 10 year bond yields have risen 40% (from 1.7 to 2.4%) in only two weeks.

With the Italian constitutional referendum approaching on December 4 and the time of seasonal strength beginning in precious metals, we could be in for a strong rally for some time.


One stock I like at this time is Franco Nevada with a minimum target of $84.00