Chinese Government Grossly Understates Corona Virus Victims

Today the official count of confirmed cases of 2019 Corona virus, originating in Wuhan, China stands at 9776 with 213 deaths.

Several medical professionals, have gone on record in the last week stating these numbers do not make sense based on the number of cases exported to other countries.

The latest publication (Jan 31, 2020) in the Lancet has this to say:

Background Since Dec 31, 2019, the Chinese city of Wuhan has reported an outbreak of atypical pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Cases have been exported to other Chinese cities, as well as internationally, threatening to trigger a global outbreak. Here, we provide an estimate of the size of the epidemic in Wuhan on the basis of the number of cases exported from Wuhan to cities outside mainland China and forecast the extent of the domestic and global public health risks of epidemics, accounting for social and non-pharmaceutical prevention interventions.

Methods We used data from Dec 31,2019,to Jan 28, 2020, on the number of cases exported from Wuhan internationally (known days of symptom onset from Dec 25, 2019, to Jan 19, 2020) to infer the number of infections in Wuhan from Dec 1, 2019, to Jan 25, 2020. Cases exported domestically were then estimated. We forecasted the national and global spread of 2019-nCoV, accounting for the effect of the metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan and surrounding cities, which began Jan 23–24, 2020. We used data on monthly flight bookings from the Official Aviation Guide and data on human mobility across more than 300 prefecture-level cities in mainland China from the Tencent database. Data on confirmed cases were obtained from the reports published by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Serial interval estimates were based on previous studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV). A susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered metapopulation model was used to simulate the epidemics across all major cities in China. The basic reproductive number was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credibile interval (CrI).

Findings In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86)and that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–130 330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days (95% CrI 5·8–7·1). We estimated that in the baseline scenario, Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had imported 461 (95% CrI 227–805), 113 (57–193), 98 (49–168), 111 (56–191), and 80 (40–139) infections from Wuhan, respectively. If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domesticallyand over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.

Interpretation Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately. Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.

 My view is the Chinese government is lying about the severity of the epidemic, which has the potential to become a global pandemic.  The 75,800 infections as of Jan 25th mentioned in the article in conjunction with the 6.4 day rate of doubling, suggest over 150,000 current infections.  The authorities seem very keen on downplaying the problem, to the point of arm twisting the World Health Organization to state that travel to China should remain unrestricted.  Watching the live news conference of WHO yesterday was a rather sickening event as the director gushed and fawned over what a good job the Chinese authorities had done in preventing the spread of the virus and how transparent they are about the epidemic.  The director had met president Xi himself on the matter.  
Despite China's severe authoritarianism, anecdotal evidence continues to leak out that the outbreak is much more severe, hospitals are overrun with patients, medical staff is overwhelmed, medical supplies have run out, and virus victims are being left to fend for themselves, sometimes locked into their own apartments.
In our view, the market is underestimating the impact of the virus, thinking it will be mostly over in a week or so.  Given the numbers, our view is a secondary outbreak, outside of China is likely within the next month unless serious restrictions are placed on travel and victims of this virus are quarantined.