With the continual barrage of misinformation and outright propaganda regarding global warming aka climate change it is time to do some independent statistical analysis.
The Warmists claim that carbon dioxide, that trace gas in the atmosphere that makes up 0.04% (400 parts per million) of the atmosphere on a dry basis, is the primarily influencer of climate and hence global warming. They further claim that burning fossil fuels is the primary cause of CO2 increasing, and hence it is "all our fault".
After this winter's exceptionally cold temperatures, it was time to look at the longest sent of weather records available within 200 kilometers of my area, 67 years worth, and complete a statistical analysis to see if indeed there are any trends in temperatures.
With a start date of 1953 and end date of 2019, we looked at the temperatures for the month of February in Cold Lake, Alberta. The raw data referenced can be found at this site.
We note over this time period that CO2 has increased from 315 ppm in 1958 to approximately 410 ppm today according to the Mauna Loa observatory. To put in perspective, this represents an increase of 30 percent over 1958 levels.
Clearly with such a large increase in a "greenhouse gas" as it is constantly referred to in the media, we should be seeing noticeable affects in high latitude areas such as northern Canada where I am located. The Warmists claim we could see increases in temperature on an annual basis of 5 degrees Celsius. Surely we should see some improvement in winter temperatures over this nearly 70 year period.
The analysis your intrepid blogger just completed shows the following:
Mean February temperature: -12.7 Celcius
Temperature Variance: 17.742
Standard deviation (sigma): 4.212
Actual February temperature mean for 2019: -22.6 Celcius
This represents a 2.4 sigma event (below average).
To express this another way, it is a one in 80 year event.
Further, it is well outside the normal range of 2 standard deviations which comprise 95% of the data points. Yet it was not the coldest year, that award goes to 1979 with an average of -24.6 C and statistically a 2.8 sigma event.
So what, the reader says, you had a tough month in 2019. The interesting thing about looking at such a long data set is the frequency of warm years and when they occurred. Reviewing the data shows only three years one could consider warm. The warmest was 1977, a 2.2 sigma event with a temperature average of -3.3, the next closest years are 1984 and 1998 each with -5.6 C averages, both 1.7 sigma events.
What is significant, is there is only 1 record showing a warm February beyond a 2 sigma event, and numerous ones that are colder than a 2 sigma event.
The conclusion from this can only be that there is zero evidence of global warming at this site for the past 70 years, and in fact, there may be some evidence of a cooling trend.
The Warmists claim that carbon dioxide, that trace gas in the atmosphere that makes up 0.04% (400 parts per million) of the atmosphere on a dry basis, is the primarily influencer of climate and hence global warming. They further claim that burning fossil fuels is the primary cause of CO2 increasing, and hence it is "all our fault".
After this winter's exceptionally cold temperatures, it was time to look at the longest sent of weather records available within 200 kilometers of my area, 67 years worth, and complete a statistical analysis to see if indeed there are any trends in temperatures.
With a start date of 1953 and end date of 2019, we looked at the temperatures for the month of February in Cold Lake, Alberta. The raw data referenced can be found at this site.
We note over this time period that CO2 has increased from 315 ppm in 1958 to approximately 410 ppm today according to the Mauna Loa observatory. To put in perspective, this represents an increase of 30 percent over 1958 levels.
Clearly with such a large increase in a "greenhouse gas" as it is constantly referred to in the media, we should be seeing noticeable affects in high latitude areas such as northern Canada where I am located. The Warmists claim we could see increases in temperature on an annual basis of 5 degrees Celsius. Surely we should see some improvement in winter temperatures over this nearly 70 year period.
The analysis your intrepid blogger just completed shows the following:
Mean February temperature: -12.7 Celcius
Temperature Variance: 17.742
Standard deviation (sigma): 4.212
Actual February temperature mean for 2019: -22.6 Celcius
This represents a 2.4 sigma event (below average).
To express this another way, it is a one in 80 year event.
Further, it is well outside the normal range of 2 standard deviations which comprise 95% of the data points. Yet it was not the coldest year, that award goes to 1979 with an average of -24.6 C and statistically a 2.8 sigma event.
So what, the reader says, you had a tough month in 2019. The interesting thing about looking at such a long data set is the frequency of warm years and when they occurred. Reviewing the data shows only three years one could consider warm. The warmest was 1977, a 2.2 sigma event with a temperature average of -3.3, the next closest years are 1984 and 1998 each with -5.6 C averages, both 1.7 sigma events.
What is significant, is there is only 1 record showing a warm February beyond a 2 sigma event, and numerous ones that are colder than a 2 sigma event.
The conclusion from this can only be that there is zero evidence of global warming at this site for the past 70 years, and in fact, there may be some evidence of a cooling trend.
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