Our 2017 forecast for gold is based on several inputs including presumptions regarding the US dollar and geopolitics. With this in mind we have produced two primary views of the market for the year.
Our most likely scenario is the second one labelled Flat Correction.
In this view, the bounce in price underway would stall at the $1210 area before another leg down to test the lows of 2015 near $1050 sometime during the middle of the year. This would complete wave B down setting up a strong wave up beginning late in the year and especially moving strongly during 2018.
The second view, which we consider somewhat likely at this point is the first illustration labelled "triangle correction in a B wave".
In this view, price bounces to perhaps the $1280 -1290 range before correcting and chopping around for much of the spring and summer period to complete the B wave. Then a tremendous rally unfolds with a target over $1480 that is not met until spring or summer 2018.
This scenario considers the US dollar rally as a bull trap that fails in late summer or autumn.