It appears that gold may be ready to take a little break from its relentless uptrend. While an upside break is possible, its probability seems to be diminishing.
Non farm payrolls may provide the catalyst.
We note that it is a long way from its 200 day moving average. It has been 11% above this long term moving average since early March.
We also note that the summer time period is historically a seasonally weak period for the shiny metal.
So we have moved to cash before the news breaks tomorrow morning.
No point in guessing, as one could be jumping in front of a moving bus.
Short term Fib retracements suggest that we could see the $1240 to $1260 area before some bottoming pattern forms.
Intermediate term Fibs suggest a 38% retracement to the 1206 range is possible.
Expect a choppy environment over several weeks as the metal consolidates.
Non farm payrolls may provide the catalyst.
We note that it is a long way from its 200 day moving average. It has been 11% above this long term moving average since early March.
We also note that the summer time period is historically a seasonally weak period for the shiny metal.
So we have moved to cash before the news breaks tomorrow morning.
No point in guessing, as one could be jumping in front of a moving bus.
Short term Fib retracements suggest that we could see the $1240 to $1260 area before some bottoming pattern forms.
Intermediate term Fibs suggest a 38% retracement to the 1206 range is possible.
Expect a choppy environment over several weeks as the metal consolidates.
COT is very interesting
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1
It certainly is near record highs.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if it even matter much as the gold market seems to be determined to go higher after the brief pullback a couple days ago.