The Fed Is Stuck - It Can't Raise Interest Rates

Fed Shouldn’t Raise Rates Yet Because Job Market Still Ailing

The Federal Reserve should be very cautious about raising interest rates just because the headline unemployment rate is falling, according to new research from two former central bank officials who are concerned the often-cited figure vastly overstates improvements in the job market.
David Blanchflower, a Dartmouth College economics professor and former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, teams up with Andrew Levin, an ex-Fed board economist now at the International Monetary Fund, to argue that the U.S. employment outlook is much weaker than indicated by the 5.5% jobless rate registered in February.
Underemployment and hidden unemployment currently account for the bulk of the U.S. employment gap,” which the authors estimate to be around 3.3 million jobs when new entrants into the labor market are included.

My view:

As the reality of poor employment and economic performance becomes apparent over the next six months, the Federal Reserve will be trapped in a low interest rate pit with no clear way out.

We expect that gold will begin to perform quite well in such a fragile and uncertain environment.