2014 End Of Year Review

An honest forecaster will review previous predictions transparently with his readership.

Now is the time to review forecasts made in December 2013.

The following are a summary of the original forecasts and the present results:

1) Beginning of the global stock market correction.

Result: Market capitalization is up slightly (1.2%) from 63.4 trillion to 64.2 trillion as of Nov 30, 2014. This forecast appears to be a little early.

2) Spike in gold bullion prices to $1500.

Result: Way off, prices went up and down and sideways to close within a few dollars of the Dec 2013 price of $1204.80.

3) Bond yields rise in southern European countries.

Result: Greek three year bond yields hit 12% recently, up from 4% in August.

4) Euro splinters in 2014

Result:  Euro is still here, but so are its endemic problems.

5) Oil and Copper prices drop, with WTIC below $78, and Copper under $3.00

Result: $WTIC is now $53.71 and Copper $2.84

6) Japanese Bond yields rise and Yen collapses.

Result: The Yen dropped 12% vs. the US dollar and but 10 year bond yields dropped from 0.75% to 0.33%.

Overall results are mixed at best.

Forecasts 3 and 5 are bang on, 6 is half right, 1 is close but not quite there, 4 is off and 2 is way off the mark.

My 2015 forecast will be published in a few days.