From Chart of the Day:
For some perspective on the post-financial crisis rally, today's chart illustrates how much of the downturn that occurred as a result of the financial crisis has been retraced by several major international stock market indices. For example, the S&P 500 peaked at 1,565.15 back in October 9, 2007 and troughed at 676.53 back on March 9, 2009. The most recent close for the S&P 500 is 1,652.35 -- it has retraced 109.8% of its financial crisis bear market decline. As today's chart illustrates, China (Shanghai Composite), Japan (Nikkei 225), India (S&P BSE Sensex), Germany (DAX), France (CAC 40) and the UK (FTSE 100) are all above their financial crisis lows (i.e. above 0% on today's chart) while only one of the aforementioned countries (Germany) is currently trading above its respective pre-financial crisis peak (i.e. above 100% on today's chart). It is interesting to note that the US (epicenter of the financial crisis) has outperformed the other major stock market indices while China has lagged to the point where it only trades 8.3% above its financial crisis lows -- not that impressive of a performance considering that the financial crisis occurred well over four years ago.
My view:
It appears that the S&P has either put in a top or is very close to a top of 1710 points. The bond buying that has underpinned stocks may soon diminish, and as bond yields put pressure on stocks it seems that a deep correction will soon begin.
We will consider some targets based on the big picture over the next few days.
For some perspective on the post-financial crisis rally, today's chart illustrates how much of the downturn that occurred as a result of the financial crisis has been retraced by several major international stock market indices. For example, the S&P 500 peaked at 1,565.15 back in October 9, 2007 and troughed at 676.53 back on March 9, 2009. The most recent close for the S&P 500 is 1,652.35 -- it has retraced 109.8% of its financial crisis bear market decline. As today's chart illustrates, China (Shanghai Composite), Japan (Nikkei 225), India (S&P BSE Sensex), Germany (DAX), France (CAC 40) and the UK (FTSE 100) are all above their financial crisis lows (i.e. above 0% on today's chart) while only one of the aforementioned countries (Germany) is currently trading above its respective pre-financial crisis peak (i.e. above 100% on today's chart). It is interesting to note that the US (epicenter of the financial crisis) has outperformed the other major stock market indices while China has lagged to the point where it only trades 8.3% above its financial crisis lows -- not that impressive of a performance considering that the financial crisis occurred well over four years ago.
My view:
It appears that the S&P has either put in a top or is very close to a top of 1710 points. The bond buying that has underpinned stocks may soon diminish, and as bond yields put pressure on stocks it seems that a deep correction will soon begin.
We will consider some targets based on the big picture over the next few days.
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