Economic Fantasy Versus Commodity Reality

Economic reality finally cracks market fervor

Global stocks stumbled last Thursday in one of the few times the grey economic reality cut through this year's reverie in financial markets.

And that could mark the start of a trend, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week hinted the U.S. central bank could soon scale back its monthly bond purchases that have flooded stock markets with new cash.

Some poor business surveys from China have also had an impact, suggesting the world's No.2 economy is struggling for momentum.

While there is little in the way of major economic data this week that will send chills through stock markets as happened on Thursday, there is a renewed sense of caution in the market.

"The underlying momentum in the global economy is weaker than it should be at this point of the economic cycle, five years after the global crisis," said Lena Komileva, director of G+ Economics consultancy in London.

"We have yet to see evidence of a convincing, self-sustained positive feedback loop between real growth and market value inflation."

My view:

After five years of tinkering with the global economy to "rescue" it from the ravages of deflation, central bankers are no where near a solution.

If indeed the economy is recovering as central bankers and western governments claim, we should see the underlying building blocks of the economy recovering and making all time highs as the S&P and DOW reach new heights.

The charts show the divergence between central bank fantasy and economic reality as the S&P begins to top out:

Let us also consider the CRB Index which consists of 19 major commodities (Aluminum, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Lean Hogs, Live Cattle, Natural Gas, Nickel, Orange Juice, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar, Unleaded Gas and Wheat):

It appears, over the past 10 years, that commodities peaked in 2007, and managed a 62% retracement of their highs in early 2011, likely thanks to central bank intervention, and now are sliding below the 38% retracement level.

This is hardly convincing evidence of global recovery.

It is evidence of a great bubble in stocks and bonds, as hard assets - commodities remain subdued.

In all likelihood, deflation is coming, despite central bank rescuing.