In my view we appear to be at the top of the market from a very long term monthly view.
It is possible we will see a minor pullback and push higher just to frustrate the bears, given the current state of ultra complacency as the VIX remains below 15.
But from a long term perspective, look carefully at the trends.
The RSI is declining long term.
The MACD looks to make a lower high than it did in 2000.
Most importantly the money flow is in terminal decline.
This is a market that looks to be driven by aging demographics.
Older people tend to save rather than spend, so where does that leave many stocks of the non-defensive variety?
My thinking, at this point, is that we will correct somewhat, push up again this fall/winter, and then plunge during the summer of 2014 as governments are forced into austerity.
Time will certainly tell whether this bearish scenario will unfold.
At this point, precious metals stocks look extremely beaten up and undervalued. We seem to be close to a point of strong support on both the metals and miners, which could prove quite profitable over the summer if the general market becomes increasingly lethargic.
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