Be Wary My Friends

At this point I am not sure how the markets will react to this announcement from Moody's:

From Marketwatch:
 Moody's Investor Service downgraded Greece's bond ratings to a C from Ca because of massive losses to bondholders expected under a debt restructuring. "Moody's decision not to assign an outlook to the rating is based on the very high likelihood of a default by the Greek government on its bonds and the fact that C is the lowest rating on Moody's rating scale," the ratings agency said in a statement. Moody's expects an investor haircut in excess of 70% as a result of the restructuring.
Keep your eye on the Ted spread and Libor.



Note the crossing on MACD for both these indexes.

It is my expectation from this indicator that we could see both Ted and Libor rise again very soon.

If so, we may see a rise in VIX and a fall in the major stock indexes including the S&P 500. 

I am reluctant to call a top here, as I have called tops before and been surprised to see another rise to the upside.  Nevertheless, watch the VIX as events in Europe unfold, we could be in for a rough ride within weeks.


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