Based on some recent information from Stratfor, it is my view that a strike against Iran is unlikely in the short term.
When one considers the position of the US fleet, it becomes apparent that there is simply not enough firepower in the Indian Ocean to hit Iran hard.
It seems that the bulk of the US fleet is preparing for operation "Bold Alligator 2012" instead.
Short of some unforeseen geopolitical event, my forecast remains biased to the downside for crude prices.
When one considers the position of the US fleet, it becomes apparent that there is simply not enough firepower in the Indian Ocean to hit Iran hard.
It seems that the bulk of the US fleet is preparing for operation "Bold Alligator 2012" instead.
Short of some unforeseen geopolitical event, my forecast remains biased to the downside for crude prices.
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