Embracing Collapse

Two crude oil charts for contemplation:

First chart covers the timeframe from July 2006 to August 2008

Second chart covers the period from March 2009 until today.

Does this look kinda familiar?

The last time oil spiked it shot a hole through the global economy like a cannon.

A note of interest - Point and figure charts show a oil price target of $119 to $133 depending on parameters used.

Another quick point, oil priced in Euros is now higher than is was at the 2008 peak!

In my portfolio I am positioning myself with the following to embrace the collapse:

Inverse Oil etf.
Inverse Copper etf.
Leveraged S&P volatility etf.
US Dollar bull etf. (Yes, I know the dollar is trash, but not quite yet in my view).

Just waiting for the proper buy signals before making my move.  I have jumped at false buy signals before and bought these etfs too early to take full advantage of the downturn.

Not that I want the downturn to come, but let's get real here, countries simply can't borrow more than they earn (GDP growth) for ever.  So let's prepare ourselves for the inevitable.


  1. In your opinion PW, will the masses run to Treasury, or Gold and Silver when the red candle arrives?

    One hell of a Gap to fill, Glad your posting again friend.

    Please be well


  2. In my view Bill, the masses will primarily turn to US treasuries, particularly outside the United States. A secondary component of investors will run to precious metals.
    My reasoning for this is that the majority of the public still does not understand that gold and silver are money and paper is only useful for starting campfires.
    At some point down the road, possibly a couple of years, the public will get so beat up on paper that they will learn the hard lesson that government bonds are not stores of value.
    Perhaps I am being too hard on the investing public, but I doubt it.

    Thank you for your comments.


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