From The Standard:
Increasing evidence is building that China is at the beginning of a significant recession. We see the price of copper pulling back significantly and the Shanghai Composite Index continuing its downward trend.
Most significant is the recent quote of Chinese Vice Premier Wang Quishan in the Spanish publication Finanzas.
Canadian Real Estate
Australian Real Estate
Copper
Oil
European stock exchanges
Asian stock exchanges
The Toronto Stock Exchange
S&P 500
NYSE
Gold may be included in this list for a time given the amount of leverage in the gold market that has not yet been unwound. But this is a view of which I am not certain. I suspect that once the European crisis gathers further momentum we will see a rush to US bonds and physical currency notes. The timing of the European crisis is yet to be determined, but a post Christmas event is probably a good guess.
We may not see the abandonment of bonds for a little while yet, and at that time see a massive push into bullion. Central banks are buying large amounts of bullion right now and have become net buyers for the first time since the 1980s. Do they know something of which the public generally is not aware?
Xie has accurately predicted many market events, such as the collapse of Shanghai A shares since 2008, the bursting of the US property bubble that same year, the stock market rebound from early 2009, and rate increases in China since October 2010. Earlier this year, he said the mainland property bubble has peaked and might burst next year. Much more recently, he said the bubble had burst earlier than expected. Since August, many mainland developers have been cutting the prices of flats, with apartments going for 20 to 30 percent below peak prices in the first half. Xie now believes home prices will continue to fall and that in certain areas, prices will slump 50 percent. The next six months will be critical. If some developers become bankrupt, Beijing should not bail them out. Allowing only the fittest to survive may not be a bad idea. If the mainland can get through this period relatively unscathed, hot money will shift from speculative activities to the real economy. Hold on to your cash.My view:
Increasing evidence is building that China is at the beginning of a significant recession. We see the price of copper pulling back significantly and the Shanghai Composite Index continuing its downward trend.
Most significant is the recent quote of Chinese Vice Premier Wang Quishan in the Spanish publication Finanzas.
Chinese Vice Premier Wang Quishan, has pleaded not convinced that the global financial crisis is heading for a chronic global recession has opined that China should focus on its domestic problems.
"The only thing we can be sure that among all the uncertainties, the global economic recession caused by the international financial crisis will have a chronic character," the deputy prime minister in comments picked up by the official Chinese news agency, Xinhua.Referring to China's economy, Deputy Prime Minister asked the banks to loosen their lending capacity in the agricultural sector and small businesses. "Our country depends heavily on external demand. We must clearly see this and solve our own affairs," Wang said.Due to these increasingly bearish developments, combined with the unresolved debt crisis in Southern Europe, it is my view that we will soon see substantial pullbacks in:
Canadian Real Estate
Australian Real Estate
Copper
Oil
European stock exchanges
Asian stock exchanges
The Toronto Stock Exchange
S&P 500
NYSE
Gold may be included in this list for a time given the amount of leverage in the gold market that has not yet been unwound. But this is a view of which I am not certain. I suspect that once the European crisis gathers further momentum we will see a rush to US bonds and physical currency notes. The timing of the European crisis is yet to be determined, but a post Christmas event is probably a good guess.
We may not see the abandonment of bonds for a little while yet, and at that time see a massive push into bullion. Central banks are buying large amounts of bullion right now and have become net buyers for the first time since the 1980s. Do they know something of which the public generally is not aware?
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