This is an older video that gives one of the better descriptions of credit default swaps and banking interconnectedness.
Keep in mind that we are now three years down the road after this video was produced and are now facing banking and sovereign debt problems of even greater magnitude.
In my view the producer has underestimated the risk that has increased as all banks are held together by CDS's like glue. With little equity in each bank, the first one to fall down the chasm may pull down the rest.
If the European authorities do not come up with a plan that satisfies the markets (at least for the short term), a major sell off is possible.
I would put the odds of this at about 20%.
I suspect we will see some kind of arrangement to kick the can down the road with a larger bailout fund to keep the banks held together with duct tape, band aids, and chewing gum.
Looking at the way crude oil is behaving, I would venture a guess that we will see a significant pullback in prices very soon as the "growth" scenario begins to unravel.
My inverse crude ETF looks good here and it just popped the Keltner channel.
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