Spain


A classic example of wrong presumptions courtesy of Marketwatch.

The protestors in Spain are mistaken.

Spain is a business in a matter of speaking.

The amount of revenue generated must not exceed the expenses of the nation. This is particularly true over long periods of time. A nation that runs substantial budget deficits for any length of time will quickly run into financial difficulty or worse.
Spain is one name in a long list of socialist western democracies that is reaching the limits of patience in the bond market.
When the bond market demands higher yields (interest rates), it is a good indicator that the limit is near.

Check out the chart from Bloomberg on 10 year Spanish bond yields:


We have not seen the massive move upward in yields in Spain as we saw in Portugal over the same period, however, the market seems to be catching on that Spain has made little fiscal progress. Expect higher yields in the next 6 to 12 months.

As to the claim of the protesters that they are not "slaves", well, the outlook is not very good. With more severe austerity measure sure to kick in soon, the country is a slave to the Euro. Once the debt limit is reached, the debt that cannot be repaid, won't be. The result will be sovereign default.
It is my view that a Spanish default will be the trigger of the next global financial crisis.

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