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April 18, 2011

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Warning Shot Across the Bow for the US Dollar

From Bloomberg News: Dollar to Decline as 10-Year Yields Rise: Technical Analysis Share Email Print A A A By Oliver Biggadike April 29 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar will probably decline should 10-year Treasury note yields rise “decisively” above 3.06 percent, Citigroup Inc. said in a report citing trading patterns. The greenback strengthened in 1993 against the currencies that went on to form the euro as U.S. 10-year notes rallied, technical analysts Tom Fitzpatrick in New York and Shyam Devani in London wrote today in a note to clients. The U.S. currency erased most of its gains as yields climbed in 1994, they said. “If this were the correct picture then one would expect significant renewed dollar weakness,” the analysts wrote. Buying the dollar and Treasuries was “the trade of choice ” toward the end of 2008 and “ is now unraveling ,” they said. The dollar fell for a second day against the 16-nation euro, depreciating 1.3 percent to $1.3323 at 12:06 p.m. in New York. The yi

90% Probability Of Trump Victory In November

Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996. “The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections sin

Debt Levels 30% Higher Than Pre-Lehman

Global Credit Excess Worse Than Pre-Lehman The Swiss-based `bank of central banks’ said a hunt for yield was luring investors en masse into high-risk instruments , “a phenomenon reminiscent of exuberance prior to the global financial crisis”. This is happening just as the US Federal Reserve prepares to wind down stimulus and starts to drain dollar liquidity from global markets, an inflexion point that is fraught with danger and could go badly wrong. “This looks like to me like 2007 all over again, but even worse ,” said William White, the BIS’s former chief economist, famous for flagging the wild behaviour in the debt markets before the global storm hit in 2008. “All the previous imbalances are still there. Total public and private debt levels are 30pc higher as a share of GDP in the advanced economies than they were then , and we have added a whole new problem with bubbles in emerging markets that are ending in a boom-bust cycle,” said Mr White, now chairman of the

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