A Recession In Waiting

From Chart of The Day:

The decline in crude oil prices that began in mid-2008 was historic -- plunging over $90 per barrel in just eight months. Over the past two years, however, crude oil prices have increased by over $60 per barrel. Today's chart provides some perspective on the historic decline and recent spike with a long-term view of inflation-adjusted West Texas Intermediate Crude. Today's chart illustrates that most oil price spikes were a result of Middle East crises and often preceded or coincided with a US recession. It is also interesting to note that the recent spike in oil prices has brought the price of oil back to a historically high level -- a level that was surpassed only briefly during the tail-end of the major price spikes of 1980 and 2008.


I have long argued on this blog that the recession is not over.
Recent events in the Middle East, combined with trouble in the bond market due to high levels of sovereign debt, threaten to push the economy back into official "recession".

The bond market will only allow bailouts and over spending by sovereign nations to continue for so long. Then true austerity will be forced upon developed nations, with the highly indebted feeling the pain most severely.

Since the banking system has not been reformed, nor has the mindset of the policitians and guardians of the public trust, I anticipate this process will be quite hard on democracy itself.

Who will willingly take a pay cut and fewer benefits as the prices of fuel and food rise?


  1. Great read PW.



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