March 18 Non Confirmation

As long time readers know my model shows March 18, 2011, which happens to be Quadruple Witching Day, as the day we will look back and say "that was the beginning of the long collapse".

One of the key confirmations I've waited for months was expected on or about March 15th did not happen.

Today, "Collapse Day" on March 18th looks very unlikely and shows the pitfalls of very specific forecasting.

Time to go back to the drawing board to re-examine the data.

If we do see a major market move down tomorrow, it will not be due to precise forecasting, it will be due to a Black Swan event like the one that follows:

Gaddafi blames al-Qaeda

Mustafa Abdel Galil, who resigned three days ago from his post as the country's justice minister, spoke to Al Jazeera at a meeting of tribal leaders and representatives of eastern Libya in the city of Al Baida.

He warned that Gaddafi has biological and chemical weapons, and will not hesitate to use them.

"We call on the international community and the UN to prevent Gaddafi from going on with his plans in Tripoli," he said.

"At the end when he’s really pressured, he can do anything. I think Gaddafi will burn everything left behind him."

If this report is true, Gaddafi has buffaloed everyone in the global community for years.

Watching interviews of him over the years reminds one of the grandiose behavior of Hitler.

Is Gaddafi a psychotic murderous lunatic? Quite likely in my view.

His track record shows such contempt for human life it seems possible that he would release a biological or chemical weapon if cornered by, say, a UN sponsored air strike.

Let us hope this is just a product of an overactive imagination, and the reports of bio weapons are untrue.