Why The Rally Is Likely Over

Note how on three of the major stock exchanges in America the 200 day MA acts as resistance for the recent rally.  Only the Dow broke through with any conviction, and today it fell back below this level intraday.

Semis continue to show what I call "lack of rally conviction" by edging back repeatedly to the 200 day MA.
Financials are running into some pretty tough resistance, again at the 200 day MA.  Phony profit results will fool the markets for only so long.

Volatility seems determined to remain high compared to the 10 to 15 range as typical in the longer term.  Note how the 200 day MA acts as support.  VIX dropped below this level with some conviction only on 1 day and is back to the 24-25 range.

Note how oil keeps hitting the 200 day MA which is acting as resistance.  At this point the death cross formation is still valid.

If my assessment is correct, we can expect to see sideways movement in crude as the slide begins in it and  stocks in the near future.