The US dollar index has been sending conflicting signals for the past month.
Bottom formation has begun three times, once in late September, once in late October and again in early December.
The dollar appears to be moving sideways at this point. There is no certainty at this point in either upward or downward movement.
We note that RSI is in the low 50s and has been close to this level the past two times the dollar seemed to want to reverse the trend. We also note that the index has a great deal of trouble breaking above and staying above the 50 day EMA.
The Dubai crisis has not produced a significant upward movement, and until a strong fear trade is established, we expect more or less horizontal movement with the dollar index.
If no financial or geopolitical crisis develops within the next couple of months, we anticipate continued downward movement toward the 71 or 72 level which is the last and strongest support level for the index.
Once this last major support level is reached, we anticipate a significant rally in the dollar on any sort of negative, risk adverse news. At that time, we expect an upside correction to the 200 day EMA and sharp sell off in stocks globally.
As with any upward dollar movement, we see this as an opportunity to exchange fiat currency for precious metals and other tangible assets.