As we suspected some time ago on this blog, the Baltic Dry Index is moving lower once again.
Significantly, it just broke below the 200 day exponetial moving average. Not a healthy sign.
This does not bode well for the recovery and "green shoots" crowd.
Will the index reverse course?
Possibly.
The question is, what will drive it?
Unemployment is reaching higher in both the US and Canada. What will happen when unemployment insurance benefits and extended benefits run out?
Will China, with 5% of World GDP carry the economy forward?
That seems optimistic.
Will a restructured economy emerge with innovative ideas and products for consumers?
Eventually.
The issue here is the massive State intervention in the market process. "If you are a failing, poorly managed company, we will bail you out" says the State. (That is if it politically expedient to do so.)
Where does this leave us?
My worry is we see a combination of Nationalization of many industries and increased Socialism with its reduction of civil liberties to "help people".
When was the last time we heard the name Nationalist Socialist Party and where did that lead?
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