‘Bubble of Belief’ in China Economy Seen Bursting: Chart of Day
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By David Wilson
June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Rallies in commodity prices and mining-company shares stem from a “bubble of belief” in China’s economy that is likely to burst, according to Albert Edwards, a strategist at Societe Generale.
“I believe we will look back on the Chinese economic miracle as the sickest joke yet played on investors,” Edwards wrote yesterday in a report. To support his argument, he cited falling earnings at the country’s industrial companies.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows year-over-year percentage changes in profits, as compiled by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The chart combines monthly data from 2005 and 2006 with a quarterly index, started in 2007, that tracks companies in 22 provinces. This quarter’s report is set for June 26.
Commodity prices climbed 21 percent this year through yesterday, according to the UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index. Mining stocks paced a 23 percent gain in the MSCI World Materials Index, the year’s top performer among 10 industry groups in the MSCI World Index.
While the Chinese economy expanded 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, Edwards wrote that he was skeptical about its ability to sustain that level of growth during a global recession.
“The bullish group-think on China is just as vulnerable to massive disappointment as any other extreme example of bubble- nonsense I have seen over the last two decades,” his report said. “The fall to earth will be equally as shocking.”
Commentary: As mentioned in a previous post, this gives evidence to the hypothesis that we could be in a "WWWW Recession". The recovery could be very short lived, only to be followed by another downturn, then a shallow recovery, another recession and so on.
In my view, all the government interference through co-ordinated intervention by many of the world's central banks only exacerbates the problem and prolongs the pain.
If we look at China's industrial companies earnings we see a falling trendline from 19% increase in earnings in Q3 of 2008 to only a 5% increase in Q4 to a decline of 37% in Q1 of 2009!
Where is the growth miracle?
If China is not growing much, and the US, Canada and Europe are stagnant or declining, why is the media so optimistic?
My view is that much of the optimism is based on manipulated statistics presented in the media. Chart of the Day recently showed us P to E ratios of 130:1 on the S&P 500 while the media reports a different method of P to E calculation to promote a more optimistic 15.5:1 ratio.
One wonders what the motivation is for such optimism. Is it rose colored glasses or some other reason? My concern is that many investors will pour back into the market and in only a few months stocks will again drop precipitously, dashing the retirement hopes of many.
Share Email Print A A A
By David Wilson
June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Rallies in commodity prices and mining-company shares stem from a “bubble of belief” in China’s economy that is likely to burst, according to Albert Edwards, a strategist at Societe Generale.
“I believe we will look back on the Chinese economic miracle as the sickest joke yet played on investors,” Edwards wrote yesterday in a report. To support his argument, he cited falling earnings at the country’s industrial companies.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows year-over-year percentage changes in profits, as compiled by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The chart combines monthly data from 2005 and 2006 with a quarterly index, started in 2007, that tracks companies in 22 provinces. This quarter’s report is set for June 26.
Commodity prices climbed 21 percent this year through yesterday, according to the UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index. Mining stocks paced a 23 percent gain in the MSCI World Materials Index, the year’s top performer among 10 industry groups in the MSCI World Index.
While the Chinese economy expanded 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, Edwards wrote that he was skeptical about its ability to sustain that level of growth during a global recession.
“The bullish group-think on China is just as vulnerable to massive disappointment as any other extreme example of bubble- nonsense I have seen over the last two decades,” his report said. “The fall to earth will be equally as shocking.”
Commentary: As mentioned in a previous post, this gives evidence to the hypothesis that we could be in a "WWWW Recession". The recovery could be very short lived, only to be followed by another downturn, then a shallow recovery, another recession and so on.
In my view, all the government interference through co-ordinated intervention by many of the world's central banks only exacerbates the problem and prolongs the pain.
If we look at China's industrial companies earnings we see a falling trendline from 19% increase in earnings in Q3 of 2008 to only a 5% increase in Q4 to a decline of 37% in Q1 of 2009!
Where is the growth miracle?
If China is not growing much, and the US, Canada and Europe are stagnant or declining, why is the media so optimistic?
My view is that much of the optimism is based on manipulated statistics presented in the media. Chart of the Day recently showed us P to E ratios of 130:1 on the S&P 500 while the media reports a different method of P to E calculation to promote a more optimistic 15.5:1 ratio.
One wonders what the motivation is for such optimism. Is it rose colored glasses or some other reason? My concern is that many investors will pour back into the market and in only a few months stocks will again drop precipitously, dashing the retirement hopes of many.
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