Forecaster Harry Dent has an interesting perspective on the stock market here:
Click the link to watch the video.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/harry-dent-major-crash-coming-stocks-commodities-already-20110331-080715-415.html;_ylt=AjWY9jFVAc3A3p9Zbi8v7vxO7sMF;_ylu=X3oDMTFjZnU3YW8yBHBvcwM0BHNlYwNGUERhaWx5VGlja2VyQmxvZwRzbGsDaGFycnlkZW50bWFq
Comments:
In my view the top will hold at 1344 on the S&P which is very close to the 78.6% Fib level.
Will Dent's forecast of 1430 come to pass? I have my doubts.
If it does, perhaps the market could go even higher and hit the low 1500s and we would see a rare Triple Top when looking at a very long term chart (12 years). While I agree that the market is likely to correct sharply, my target is in the mid 500s for the S&P and about 5000 for the Dow.
These targets do depend on Benny's QE program being unsuccessful in the near future.
My big concern is the bond market.
At double the size of the stock market, any trouble in bonds spells disaster. Higher interest rates would result and that would blast a large hole in all commodity prices including oil and copper.
In this environment, I like gold bullion, cash, some gold juniors, and farmland. With the near zero interest rate environment, pricing just about anything else is quite difficult and certainly beyond my capabilities.
Click the link to watch the video.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/harry-dent-major-crash-coming-stocks-commodities-already-20110331-080715-415.html;_ylt=AjWY9jFVAc3A3p9Zbi8v7vxO7sMF;_ylu=X3oDMTFjZnU3YW8yBHBvcwM0BHNlYwNGUERhaWx5VGlja2VyQmxvZwRzbGsDaGFycnlkZW50bWFq
The first quarter comes to a close today with major averages at or near multi-year highs. Expect "substantial" further gains for stocks before a "major top" occurs in late summer, says noted forecaster Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent and The Dent Method.
The good news, for those long, is Dent predicts the Dow will trade as high as 13,200 by mid-summer and the S&P 500 as high as 1430, or more-than 7% above current levels. The bad news is "then we could see another major crash," Dent says, forecasting the Dow could trade as low as 3300 in a worst-case scenario. "Bubbles go back to where they started or a little lower," he says. "The stock market bubble started at (Dow) 3800 in late 1994."
While Dent predicts the Dow's crash will play out over several years, he sees clear and present danger in gold, silver, oil and other commodities. "All investors should lighten up on or sell oil, silver, and gold as the U.S. dollar looks like it has bottomed and should rise ahead," he writes in the March issue of HS Dent Forecast.
Comments:
In my view the top will hold at 1344 on the S&P which is very close to the 78.6% Fib level.
Will Dent's forecast of 1430 come to pass? I have my doubts.
If it does, perhaps the market could go even higher and hit the low 1500s and we would see a rare Triple Top when looking at a very long term chart (12 years). While I agree that the market is likely to correct sharply, my target is in the mid 500s for the S&P and about 5000 for the Dow.
These targets do depend on Benny's QE program being unsuccessful in the near future.
My big concern is the bond market.
At double the size of the stock market, any trouble in bonds spells disaster. Higher interest rates would result and that would blast a large hole in all commodity prices including oil and copper.
In this environment, I like gold bullion, cash, some gold juniors, and farmland. With the near zero interest rate environment, pricing just about anything else is quite difficult and certainly beyond my capabilities.
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